New Economy Citizen Media

Food Disruptions for the US?

Tuesday April 15, 2008

Wanting the Financial Crisis to end does not necessarily mean it is over

Some time back before the collapse of Bear Stearns at the beginning of the global sub prime mortgage melt down. Someone made the prediction that we would see a 6 to 9 month slow down in growth. It appears that number has become a mantra for CEO's that have to give a public interview to the financial press. Looking ever so studious, the aforementioned corporate wank will thoughtfully project his 6 to 9 month period of turbulent times for his industry, and then all will be well once more. Repeating the mantra give great credence to my theory that management is often in the dark as to what is really going on in the world.

Short the brokers and get long the banks when they are hovering around their 52 week lows. That is one trading strategy that may prove to make a little money for a while. Remember, it is a trading strategy.

When will we see disruptions in the food distribution pipeline in the US? I predict that will occur when one or more truckload carriers goes belly up and produce starts rotting in the field because their is no excess capacity to immediately fill the contracts of a failed temperature controlled carrier. Maybe Union Pacific will step in with their fleet of reefer rail cars to fill the void. As diesel climbs past $4 per gallon, some of these trucking companies have to be on the brink of extinction. The business model for this is the airlines.