Global warming dis-information
Saturday December 2, 2006
If you find yourself engaged in conversation with someone about the weather, and they state that the case for global warming should be refuted because this year the hurricane season did not meet up with predictions. You should:
- A: Smile and agree, nodding thoughtfully, admiring this persons keen perception.
- B: Argue heatedly that they are wrong.
- C: Smile, nod thoughtfully, ignore the urge to engage an unarmed person in a battle of wit.
The correct answer is C. Ignore the urge to become entangle in a battle of wits with an unarmed person. Since hurricane season ended on November 30th the media accounts are appearing as to how some scientists are stating that the case for increased storm intensity based on global warming can not be correct due to a very mild hurricane season this year.
View these reports with extreme skepticism. A scientist should know that it takes more than 1 bit of data to forecast a trend. Using that logic I would assume that if I gained one pound today by this time next year I would be 365 lbs heavier. Conversely, if I lost a pound today, before the next holiday season I would disappear completely. We know that neither result is likely. Take the following quote from the national geographic web site and you get an idea how data is analyzed.
India's monsoon rains are getting heavier, with more severe weather likely in the future, according to scientists who examined daily rainfall records since 1951. "The magnitude of the strongest events has increased substantially over the past 50 years" in central India, lead study author B. N. Goswami, of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in Pashan, said in an email. by Sean Markey, India Monsoons Intensifying, Hazard Risks Increasing, Study Says