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Wall Street learns from Main Street

Sunday April 13, 2008

Wall St, Meet Main St

Last Friday, April 11th, General Electric shocked the Wall St. crowd by missing their earnings forecast for the quarter. Just two weeks prior, the CEO had made statements assuring investors all was well. The market responded with a move to the down side by some 250 points on Friday. All of this is old news as of now.

What is of note is that Wall St. may have gotten a glimpse to the information that many of us on Main St. already know. To be precise, the US economy is screwed for the near term. Falling home values, rising food and energy costs are draining pocketbooks, wreaking havoc with budgets and killing consumer spending. Here in the real world of work a day lives, we go to the supermarket and buy our groceries with the pay checks from our woefully inadequate jobs. We know how quickly prices are rising. We see it at the pump, and in the check out line at the grocery. I do not need two quarters of bad economic numbers to tell me we are in a recession. Hell, I am worried that the recession will turn into a full blown depression. I would like to retire in the next 10 to 15 years. For the historically challenged, the Great Depression began in the late 1920's and did not end until after World War 2 ended in 1945. Things were not great for 16 plus years.

Goodbye Gas Guzzeler

I traded my Jeep for a Honda the weekend after Hurricane Katrina. The Jeep was 2 years old with a little over 12,000 miles showing on the odometer. I rightly predicted at that time that $3.00 per gallon would be the floor, not the ceiling in the gasoline market. We should see prices hit $4.50 and higher with the first Gulf of Mexico hurricane warning issued this year. It is not that far of a stretch.

I'm a Permabear

I am starting to become a permabear. Last year, prior to July, my 401K was earning a return of close to 16% per year. I was funding it at a 15% deduction from my pay check. Last month, I dropped the deduction to 2%. This is the maximum my employer will match at a dollar for dollar level. I am loosing the tax withholding offset, but at least I have stopped the continual loss of principal to the market investment component of my plan. I have adjusted the allocation sixteen ways from Sunday, all to no avail.

Would buy a car if I trusted my Employer

I would like to buy a new car to replace my almost 3 year old Honda. I have the money for the down payment, I have the credit for the loan and the ability to repay, at least today. I do not know if my job will be here from day to day. I work in transportation, trucking to be exact. We are struggling with diesel fuel at $4 per gallon, and decreased freight due to business contractions. The maximum unemployment benefit in Mississippi is $210 a week. That will almost buy a cart of groceries, provided you fill the cart with a lot of bulky items.

The Healing begins with an omission of stupidity

I voted for Bush in the last two elections. (Omission of stupidity) I realize that was a grave error. (healing has started) I am registered Republican. In Mississippi that means I have to vote for the duds in the primary. It is great fun when the pollster call to get my opinion prior to the election. It will be a cold day in Hell when I vote for another Republican in a general election. I am leaning more in favor of Obama, but I will vote for Hillary if she wins the nomination. Trade on that insider information up on Wall St. I wholly support capping CEO compensation. Failing companies should not provide management with golden parachutes while the workers are lucky to get wages owed when the house of cards collapes.